Water FractalTier 1
at Store Championship!!!!!
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.4% | +5.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -2.5 |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.1% | +15.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Water Genbu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.5% | +21.6 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |